Understand Evolution

Communication

Motivation

There is a strong correlation between awareness and performance, so focus on this. Try to understand the landscape that you are competing in. Understand any proposals in these terms. Look before you leap.

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Know the Details

Illustrative description

Components evolve through four stages of evolution. Identify the stage of evolution for each component of the value chain.

Genesis: Unique, very rare, uncertain, changing all the time, recently discovered.
Custom built: Very uncommon and which we are still learning about. Made as one off and tailored for a specific environment. It is bespoke. It changes often. It is an artisan skill.
Product (including rental): Becoming common. Manufactured through a repeatable process, more defined, better understood.
Commodity (including utility): Scaled and volume operations of production (repetition, repetition, repetition). Standardized, defined, and fixed. Undifferentiated, and fit for a specific known purpose.

Detailed description

Components evolve through four stages of evolution due to supply and demand competition. The stages of evolution correspond to ubiquity and certainty. Ubiquity approximates diffusion of component in a market. Certainty approximates how complete, well-understood, and fit for purpose the component is.

The image displays a two-dimensional graph with the vertical axis labeled 'Ubiquity' and the horizontal axis labeled 'Certainty'. There are four primary areas denoted in the graph: 'Genesis', 'Custom Built', 'Product', and 'Commodity'. Each of these areas is associated with a different level of ubiquity and certainty.'Genesis' is positioned at the low end of both ubiquity and certainty, indicating a novel or emerging technology or concept with high uncertainty and low adoption. As we move to the right towards 'Custom Built', there is an increase in certainty but still limited ubiquity, suggesting a tailored solution that is more understood but not widely adopted. Further to the right, 'Product' represents a higher level of both ubiquity and certainty, likely a mass-produced and well-understood offering. Lastly, 'Commodity' shows the highest levels of certainty and ubiquity, implying a widely available and standardized offering with little differentiation.Additionally, the graph includes two curves. The solid curve likely represents the transition of a technology or concept from 'Genesis' through to 'Commodity'. The dotted curve could indicate the diminishing demand for customization as products become more ubiquitous and standardized. The shaded areas and overlapping squares might represent transitions or overlaps between different stages, indicating that the boundaries are not strict and there can be fluid movement between these stages. The areas might also suggest competition intensity, with 'Supply competition' indicated at the bottom left and 'Demand competition' on the top left. This implies that as products and services move from custom to commodity, the nature of competition changes.

Genesis is uncertain with no or very little ubiquity. Commodity is very certain with maximal ubiquity.

We can determine ubiquity only in retrospect once a component reaches commodity stage. Thus, we use certainty as the primary measurement for estimating evolutionary stage.

To identify component certainty consider the language publications use to describe it. Publications start with wonder of the thing and over time end up talking only about its use.

The image is a graph representing the frequency of different types of publications over time, segmented into four stages, with time on the horizontal axis and frequency on the vertical axis. The stages are labeled I through IV, with Stage II and III marked as '(key)'. Below the stages, 'increasing certainty' is noted along the time axis, suggesting that as time progresses, there is a greater understanding or predictability in the field being documented.Stage I is labeled 'Wonder' which may correspond to the initial excitement and speculation about a new topic or technology. Here, the frequency of publications starts high and then diminishes. Stage II, denoted as key, is related to 'building, construction and awareness', where the frequency curve is less sharp, indicating a sustained level of interest and publication activity over a longer period as the topic or technology is developed and understood. Stage III, also marked as key, is associated with 'operation, maintenance and feature differences', signifying a further development stage where operational and maintenance aspects are more frequently discussed, and the nuances between different features are highlighted. Finally, Stage IV corresponds to 'use', showing a second peak in frequency, possibly indicating a resurgence of interest or a new wave of publications related to the practical application of the topic or technology. Overall, the graph visualizes the lifecycle of a topic or technology in terms of publication frequency and thematic focus, aligned with its maturation and increasing certainty.

Many characteristics and properties help with approximating the stage of evolution:

Table of the properties and characteristics of the four stages of evolution

Do not confuse evolution with diffusion. Both patterns have an S-curve shape.

Diffusion is adoption of a specific change over time. The change can be novel or a feature or a specific business model. The first telephone diffused. A better method of producing glass known (Pilkington float glass method) diffused. New and improved washing powder diffuses. Utility model for provision of electricity diffused.

Evolution deals with the changing nature of something. It is not about a specific change. Instead, it shows how an activity evolved from custom built to more of a product. Evolution of an act is thousands of diffusion curves of improving versions of that act. Each version having their own chasms. Each more evolved version will diffuse from early adopters to laggards. It will diffuse through its own applicable market. That market can and does grow as the act becomes more accessible to a larger audience.

Many diffusion curves from many improving versions (A[1-5]):

The image features a set of S-shaped curves plotted on a graph that represents the market adoption over time of various items, labeled from A[1] to A[5]. Each curve reaches a point labeled '100% adoption A[n]', indicating the moment when each item has been fully embraced by the applicable market. The x-axis is labeled 'Time' and the y-axis 'Applicable Market'. The lengths of the horizontal lines at the top, labeled 'Time for A[2]' and 'Time for A[5]', denote the time it takes for A[2] and A[5] to reach full market adoption, respectively. The vertical line on the left, labeled 'Market difference from A[4] to A[5]', suggests a comparison in market size or potential between items A[4] and A[5]. Each curve is steeper than the preceding one, implying a quicker adoption rate for subsequent items.

Each version of the act diffuses to 100% adoption of its market. Those applicable markets could be different sizes for different versions. The market for the first phones might not be the same market for later, more evolved phones. The time for diffusion of each version could also be different.

For each of the components in your value chain, determine the stage of evolution. Use the various characteristics and properties above.

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Consider next

Understand Types of Components

Adapted from writings by Simon Wardley under CC BY-SA 4.0